Today: WN 1463 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet today WN 1463 RNO 06:55 → LGB 08:31 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2876 RNO 17:40 → LGB 19:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1463 Southwest	RNO 06:55	LGB 08:31	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 528 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 06:45	LGB 08:10	2%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 3588 Southwest	RNO 19:25	LGB 21:00	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2876 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 17:40	LGB 19:10	15%	6%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON