Today: AA 4053 at 19:07 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–36%.

Safest bet today AA 4053 RNO 19:07 → PHX 21:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 6494 RNO 16:17 → PHX 18:09 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4053 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RNO 19:07	PHX 21:01	19%	7%	0.4%	83%
AA 4165 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RNO 16:21	PHX 18:14	23%	7%	0.3%	68%
WN 4863 Southwest	RNO 11:17	PHX 12:33	25%	5%	0.1%	no record
WN 4715 Southwest	RNO 16:25	PHX 18:19	28%	7%	0.1%	no record
AA 1437 American Flight history →	RNO 13:05	PHX 15:00	28%	10%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
AA 3113 American Flight history →	RNO 19:24	PHX 21:18	28%	12%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AA 2418 American Flight history →	RNO 12:50	PHX 14:34	29%	9%	0.2%	74%
WN 3452 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 19:00	PHX 20:55	30%	8%	0.1%	36%
OO 6494 SkyWest	RNO 16:17	PHX 18:09	36%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON