Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:21 pm at Rochester); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2047 at 18:15, 35%.

Nonstops today


DL 2047 Delta Flight history →	ROC 18:15	ATL 20:35	35%	7%	0.7%	78%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ROC 16:14 → JFK 17:32DL 5289 · flown by Endeavor	1h 28m New York	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	5h 57m	86%	66%
United Details →	ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00UA 2059	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	5h 38m	77%	62%
United Details →	ROC 16:15 → EWR 17:37UA 3580 · flown by Republic	2h 15m Newark	EWR 19:52 → ATL 22:22UA 1287	6h 07m	96%	60%
United Details →	ROC 20:00 → IAD 21:35UA 4874 · flown by CommuteAir	53m Dulles	IAD 22:28 → ATL 00:30 +1UA 1635	4h 30m	78%	56%
Southwest Details →	ROC 17:50 → BWI 19:10WN 4354	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 20:20 → ATL 22:15WN 4626	4h 25m	86%	56%
American Details →	ROC 18:48 → CLT 20:51AA 2320	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 22:53 → ATL 00:08 +1AA 1656	5h 20m	87%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ROC 18:12 → LGA 19:33DL 5054 · flown by Endeavor	57m New York	LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975	5h 31m	64%	42%
American Details →	ROC 19:36 → PHL 21:03AA 6108 · flown by Piedmont	50m Philadelphia	PHL 21:53 → ATL 00:13 +1AA 1892	4h 37m	64%	32%
American Details →	ROC 17:43 → DCA 19:15AA 5375 · flown by PSA	46m Washington	DCA 20:01 → ATL 22:03AA 5502 · flown by PSA	4h 20m	32%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON