Today: YX 4634 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–28%.

Safest bet today YX 4634 ROC 05:06 → ORD 06:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2059 ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4634 Republic	ROC 05:06	ORD 06:21	3%	2%	0.3%	no record
AA 4247 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 05:00	ORD 05:54	8%	2%	0.5%	99%
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ROC 06:12	ORD 07:16	8%	2%	0.1%	75%
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ROC 06:20	ORD 07:28	8%	2%	0.2%	81%
UA 3507 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 10:42	ORD 11:53	9%	2%	0.2%	92%
UA 3494 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 12:25	ORD 13:38	12%	3%	0.3%	87%
MQ 3443 Envoy	ROC 15:39	ORD 16:47	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4192 Envoy	ROC 20:52	ORD 21:55	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4191 Envoy	ROC 11:32	ORD 12:40	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 3775 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ROC 11:30	ORD 12:34	16%	3%	0.5%	90%
OO 5518 SkyWest	ROC 10:46	ORD 11:56	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ROC 20:32	ORD 21:50	24%	9%	0.8%	61%
UA 2059 United Flight history →	ROC 17:52	ORD 19:00	28%	8%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON