Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 23–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1196 RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 1153 RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1196 Delta Flight history →	RSW 15:41	ATL 17:34	23%	6%	0.5%	82%
DL 1349 Delta Flight history →	RSW 18:27	ATL 20:24	26%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 1668 Delta	RSW 18:20	ATL 20:11	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1153 Delta Flight history →	RSW 13:16	ATL 15:05	30%	8%	0.6%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON