Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3462 RSW 21:05 → BNA 22:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest WN 2243 RSW 18:25 → BNA 19:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3462 Southwest Flight history →	RSW 21:05	BNA 22:10	19%	7%	0.6%	61%
WN 3159 Southwest	RSW 14:50	BNA 16:03	24%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 2243 Southwest	RSW 18:25	BNA 19:38	28%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON