tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:45 pm at Fort Myers); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27% (calm day: 17%). Best bet: American via O'Hare, leaving 17:09, 85% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:09 → ORD 19:23AA 2561 3h 05m Chicago ORD 22:28 → CVG 00:53 +1AA 4737 · flown by Republic 7h 44m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 1h 18m Detroit DTW 22:03 → CVG 23:22DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor 5h 33m 80% 73%
DeltaDetails → RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 6h 12m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832 2h 20m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148 7h 13m 87% 70%
AmericanDetails → RSW 15:59 → CLT 18:05AA 2444 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → CVG 21:56AA 2989 5h 57m 95% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → RSW 18:55 → BWI 21:30WN 4294 1h 15m Baltimore BWI 22:45 → CVG 00:30 +1WN 4435 5h 35m 73% 54%
DeltaDetails → RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349 1h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → CVG 23:15DL 1858 4h 48m 66% 53%
UnitedDetails → RSW 17:00 → IAH 18:40UA 2833 1h 04m Houston IAH 19:44 → CVG 23:06UA 2069 6h 06m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON