Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:44 pm at Fort Myers); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2559 at 17:49, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2559 Delta Flight history →	RSW 17:49	DTW 20:45	21%	7%	0.7%	69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	7h 15m	91%	80%
United Details →	RSW 14:12 → ORD 16:22UA 2472	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426	8h 07m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 21:02 → DTW 23:48DL 8805	9h 16m	96%	71%
American Details →	RSW 15:59 → CLT 18:05AA 2444	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	6h 35m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	RSW 14:23 → LGA 17:11DL 379	3h 19m New York	LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014	8h 28m	97%	66%
American Details →	RSW 14:42 → DFW 16:06AA 2740	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108	7h 54m	94%	65%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232	6h 52m	96%	65%
American Details →	RSW 14:25 → DFW 16:26AA 2438	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:28AA 313	9h 03m	97%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832	47m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426	5h 40m	66%	52%
American Details →	RSW 17:26 → DCA 20:00AA 2454	1h 00m Washington	DCA 21:00 → DTW 22:44AA 5597 · flown by PSA	5h 18m	69%	45%
American Details →	RSW 19:56 → CLT 21:56AA 1930	55m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	4h 45m	66%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON