Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:09 am at Fort Myers)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2054 at 11:59, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2054 United Flight history →	RSW 11:59	IAD 14:30	17%	4%	0.4%	90%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RSW 07:00 → ORD 09:23UA 1554	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 11:07 → IAD 14:12UA 1869	7h 12m	100%	89%
United Details →	RSW 08:39 → ORD 10:51UA 2347	2h 18m Chicago	ORD 13:09 → IAD 16:14UA 1128	7h 35m	100%	83%
American Details →	RSW 06:22 → CLT 08:20AA 1097	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA	6h 16m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	RSW 05:35 → ATL 07:19DL 1385	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	6h 02m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	RSW 10:48 → ATL 12:27DL 1089	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	5h 58m	96%	77%
United Details →	RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766	8h 06m	92%	76%
United Details →	RSW 14:12 → ORD 16:20UA 2472	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 19:42 → IAD 22:33UA 304	8h 21m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	RSW 06:45 → ATL 08:33DL 1361	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	7h 16m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	53m Detroit	DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	72%	57%
American Details →	RSW 11:50 → DFW 13:43AA 2428	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → IAD 18:35AA 1863	6h 45m	66%	46%
American Details →	RSW 19:56 → CLT 21:56AA 1930	49m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	4h 14m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON