Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:31 pm at Fort Myers); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2833 at 17:00, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2833 United Flight history →	RSW 17:00	IAH 18:40	22%	7%	0.2%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	8h 55m	94%	80%
American Details →	RSW 17:09 → ORD 19:22AA 2561	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144	7h 42m	87%	59%
Delta Details →	RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 30m	92%	59%
American Details →	RSW 18:22 → DFW 20:24AA 2446	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	6h 47m	90%	54%
American Details →	RSW 18:16 → DFW 20:13AA 2736	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	6h 42m	88%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RSW 18:22 → DFW 20:24AA 2446	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	5h 02m	46%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON