Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:05 pm at Fort Myers); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, B6 1530 at 17:12, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


B6 1530 JetBlue Flight history →	RSW 17:12	JFK 20:05	38%	12%	0.7%	82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 20:28 → JFK 00:02 +1DL 2692	9h 30m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	RSW 13:16 → ATL 15:05DL 1153	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	8h 13m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	7h 28m	96%	72%
American Details →	RSW 14:05 → DCA 16:37AA 2448	3h 21m Washington	DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30AA 4474 · flown by Republic	7h 25m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	6h 23m	90%	68%
American Details →	RSW 15:59 → CLT 18:05AA 2444	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	7h 01m	97%	68%
American Details →	RSW 14:25 → DFW 16:26AA 2438	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:50 → JFK 22:30AA 1248	8h 05m	87%	60%
American Details →	RSW 14:29 → DFW 16:38AA 2740	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:39 → JFK 22:30AA 1203	8h 01m	78%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON