Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:48 pm at Fort Myers); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4120 at 17:10, 46%.

Nonstops today


WN 4120 Southwest Flight history →	RSW 17:10	MDW 19:05	46%	9%	0.4%	41%
WN 3615 Southwest	RSW 18:40	MDW 20:43	46%	9%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Fort Myers). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RSW 19:20 → STL 20:55WN 3472	1h 00m St Louis	STL 21:55 → MDW 23:05WN 3957	4h 45m	53%	39%
Delta Details →	RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349	51m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	4h 48m	54%	39%
Southwest Details →	RSW 16:45 → PIT 19:15WN 3470	1h 00m Pittsburgh	PIT 20:15 → MDW 20:45WN 4073	5h 00m	49%	37%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON