Today: SY 386 at 16:44 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–29%.

Safest bet today SY 386 RSW 16:44 → MSP 19:19 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 402 RSW 18:15 → MSP 20:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


SY 386 Sun Country	RSW 16:44	MSP 19:19	17%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 2219 Delta Flight history →	RSW 18:12	MSP 20:49	28%	9%	0.3%	93%worse than usual
DL 402 Delta Flight history →	RSW 18:15	MSP 20:50	29%	9%	0.3%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON