Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 386 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:44 PM ET, ETA 6:46 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

SY 386 · RSW → MSP

took off 4:44 PM ET · expected to land 6:46 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ 4pm departures from RSW are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 386 · RSW → MSP

Odds over time