SY 386 · RSW → MSP

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from RSW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 386 · RSW → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?