Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3622 at 13:25, 52%.

Safest bet today WN 3622 SAN 13:25 → AUS 18:18 · 52% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3250 SAN 14:07 → AUS 19:19 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3622 Southwest	SAN 13:25	AUS 18:18	52%	12%	0.2%	no record
AS 3292 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:48	AUS 23:00	52%	12%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
WN 3477 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:30	AUS 01:30	56%	17%	0.2%	28%
WN 3661 Southwest	SAN 20:55	AUS 01:49	56%	14%	0.2%	no record
AS 3300 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:12	AUS 19:12	56%	15%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 2328 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:55	AUS 19:50	58%	15%	0.2%	9%
WN 3476 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:20	AUS 21:15	58%	15%	0.2%	0%
WN 1903 Southwest	SAN 19:21	AUS 00:14	58%	15%	0.2%	no record
AS 3250 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 14:07	AUS 19:19	58%	17%	0.7%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON