Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3478 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3478 SAN 06:35 → BNA 12:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 3479 SAN 17:35 → BNA 23:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3478 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:35	BNA 12:45	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 3623 Southwest	SAN 06:38	BNA 12:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3480 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 22:40	BNA 04:45	11%	4%	0.6%	96%
WN 4147 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:30	BNA 18:30	25%	5%	0.6%	17%
WN 3479 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:35	BNA 23:35	30%	7%	0.6%	27%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SAN 09:00 → ABQ 11:50WN 285	1h 00m Albuquerque	ABQ 12:50 → BNA 16:34WN 2951	5h 34m	89%	72%
Southwest Details →	SAN 09:15 → PHX 10:40WN 681	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 11:50 → BNA 17:04WN 4328	5h 49m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON