Today: AA 2227 at 22:25 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet today AA 2227 SAN 22:25 → CLT 06:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2465 SAN 13:19 → CLT 21:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2227 American	SAN 22:25	CLT 06:04	14%	4%	2.2%	no record
AA 2468 American Flight history →	SAN 22:28	CLT 06:15	14%	4%	2.2%	82%
AA 1860 American Flight history →	SAN 21:25	CLT 05:12	16%	4%	2.2%	86%
AA 1651 American Flight history →	SAN 06:50	CLT 14:49	17%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 1913 American	SAN 11:56	CLT 19:35	25%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SAN 13:19	CLT 21:20	30%	8%	1.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON