tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:01 am at San Diego)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 12:10, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 14 Alaska Flight history → SAN 12:42 DCA 21:00 37% 9% 0.7% 70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 9h 08m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 12:10 → MDW 18:10WN 4163 2h 35m Chicago MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406 8h 34m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 9h 01m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:19 → ORD 16:32AA 2343 2h 30m Chicago ORD 19:02 → DCA 22:14AA 1187 8h 55m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 10h 16m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:13 → IAH 15:40UA 2165 2h 25m Houston IAH 18:05 → DCA 22:15UA 1627 9h 02m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 8h 39m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 9h 19m 95% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 50m St Louis STL 19:55 → DCA 22:55WN 3908 6h 25m 57% 39%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:07 → DFW 16:28AA 2476 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 7h 24m 55% 37%
JetBlueDetails → SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30B6 190 1h 00m New York JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59B6 955 8h 08m 67% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON