tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:02 am at San Diego)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 44% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 16:25, 29% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3516 Southwest Flight history → SAN 10:35 MKE 16:35 23% 4% 0.1% 58%
WN 3271 Southwest SAN 13:35 MKE 19:33 33% 8% 0.1% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → MKE 21:41DL 4468 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SAN 12:59 → ATL 20:41DL 712 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 8h 57m 97% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 2h 45m St Louis STL 21:50 → MKE 23:14WN 1561 7h 44m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:19 → ORD 16:32AA 2343 3h 27m Chicago ORD 19:59 → MKE 21:01AA 4888 · flown by SkyWest 8h 42m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 1715 3h 13m Denver DEN 17:40 → MKE 21:15UA 4774 · flown by SkyWest 8h 20m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54DL 2388 8h 18m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → MKE 20:56UA 4711 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 95% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:45UA 5297 · flown by SkyWest 8h 47m 97% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097 50m Dallas DAL 19:55 → MKE 22:25WN 3273 6h 30m 50% 32%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:29 → LAS 17:51WN 1943 49m Las Vegas LAS 18:40 → MKE 00:11 +1WN 2342 5h 42m 50% 24%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:25 → MKE 01:55 +1WN 4136 5h 50m 44% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON