Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Today: WN 3660 at 08:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet today WN 3660 SAN 08:42 → OAK 10:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4842 SAN 16:20 → OAK 17:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3660 Southwest	SAN 08:42	OAK 10:19	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4166 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:50	OAK 11:25	11%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 4866 Southwest	SAN 07:30	OAK 09:07	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4198 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:15	OAK 08:50	13%	2%	0.4%	89%
WN 5087 Southwest	SAN 10:45	OAK 12:25	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2115 Southwest	SAN 10:07	OAK 11:44	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3517 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:45	OAK 13:25	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
WN 4240 Southwest	SAN 12:07	OAK 13:44	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 3320 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:14	OAK 09:57	22%	5%	0.5%	90%worse than usual
AS 3218 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 12:30	OAK 14:10	23%	10%	1.2%	85%
WN 4841 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:00	OAK 22:35	25%	10%	0.7%	44%
WN 2920 Southwest	SAN 13:00	OAK 14:38	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	SAN 18:00	OAK 19:38	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 3050 SkyWest	SAN 12:21	OAK 14:02	26%	11%	1.2%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	SAN 18:59	OAK 20:37	26%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 468 Southwest	SAN 16:20	OAK 17:58	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4241 Southwest	SAN 14:55	OAK 16:33	28%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3017 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:20	OAK 19:55	28%	10%	0.7%	52%
WN 3518 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:20	OAK 14:55	30%	10%	0.7%	47%
WN 3519 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:30	OAK 16:05	30%	11%	0.7%	54%
WN 4842 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:20	OAK 17:50	31%	10%	0.7%	36%
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON