Today: AA 2065 at 22:39 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–55%.

Safest bet today AA 2065 SAN 22:39 → ORD 04:53 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 1478 SAN 12:40 → ORD 18:57 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2065 American Flight history →	SAN 22:39	ORD 04:53	14%	5%	2.7%	85%
UA 540 United	SAN 22:27	ORD 04:25	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1543 American Flight history →	SAN 22:45	ORD 05:00	17%	5%	2.7%	90%
UA 1457 United Flight history →	SAN 22:25	ORD 04:36	18%	5%	0.3%	90%
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	28%	8%	0.3%	82%
UA 1068 United	SAN 14:01	ORD 20:09	33%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 1779 United Flight history →	SAN 14:00	ORD 20:20	36%	8%	0.3%	70%
UA 3751 United	SAN 14:21	ORD 20:15	36%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 811 American Flight history →	SAN 13:07	ORD 19:54	36%	10%	0.5%	74%worse than usual
AA 2131 American Flight history →	SAN 13:25	ORD 19:37	40%	10%	0.5%	65%
AS 1493 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:23	ORD 23:36	43%	10%	0.8%	70%worse than usual
AS 1478 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:40	ORD 18:57	55%	11%	0.8%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON