Today: WN 738 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–42%.

Safest bet today WN 738 SAN 10:00 → PDX 12:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3667 SAN 17:01 → PDX 19:35 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 738 Southwest	SAN 10:00	PDX 12:32	20%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 1392 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:58	PDX 20:31	22%	5%	0.8%	84%
AS 576 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:04	PDX 13:43	26%	6%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AS 794 Alaska	SAN 20:01	PDX 22:36	28%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 1321 Alaska	SAN 15:40	PDX 18:14	33%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 1402 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 14:03	PDX 16:36	35%	7%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
WN 4908 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:00	PDX 17:25	39%	10%	0.2%	36%
OO 9793 SkyWest	SAN 13:19	PDX 15:57	39%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 3667 Southwest	SAN 17:01	PDX 19:35	42%	9%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON