Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2508 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4769 SAN 14:00 → SEA 16:55 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	14%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SAN 19:00	SEA 22:03	14%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	16%	5%	0.7%	86%
AS 608 Alaska	SAN 06:11	SEA 08:59	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 1473 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 06:18	SEA 09:19	19%	3%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 1477 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:09	SEA 13:13	21%	6%	0.8%	75%
AS 753 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:40	SEA 11:44	22%	5%	0.8%	74%
AS 792 Alaska	SAN 09:18	SEA 12:06	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 475 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 11:21	SEA 14:25	22%	5%	0.8%	60%
AS 1366 Alaska	SAN 11:10	SEA 13:59	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:08	SEA 14:57	24%	5%	0.8%	85%
AS 512 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:18	SEA 10:26	24%	4%	0.9%	84%
AS 685 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:01	SEA 17:50	25%	6%	0.8%	82%
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 17:35	SEA 20:35	26%	8%	0.9%	69%
AS 1381 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:16	SEA 18:14	28%	6%	0.8%	57%
AS 1431 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:35	SEA 21:35	28%	8%	0.9%	73%
WN 3422 Southwest	SAN 07:25	SEA 10:10	31%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 465 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 13:59	SEA 16:58	31%	7%	0.8%	73%
WN 4769 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:00	SEA 16:55	34%	9%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON