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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2830 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2830 SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 4181 SAN 15:30 → SFO 17:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
UA 2830 United Flight history → SAN 06:20 SFO 08:04 9% 2% 0.6% 89%
WN 4607 Southwest Flight history → SAN 07:05 SFO 08:45 13% 4% 0.8% 62%
WN 3676 Southwest SAN 07:20 SFO 08:54 16% 5% 0.8% no record
UA 1791 United SAN 09:48 SFO 11:40 18% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 2274 United Flight history → SAN 07:15 SFO 09:01 19% 5% 0.6% 53%
UA 1113 United Flight history → SAN 09:26 SFO 11:12 20% 6% 0.6% 69%
UA 2428 United Flight history → SAN 11:55 SFO 13:41 22% 6% 0.6% 72%
UA 2309 United Flight history → SAN 11:01 SFO 12:47 22% 8% 0.6% 68%
WN 3532 Southwest Flight history → SAN 09:20 SFO 11:00 22% 8% 0.9% 9%
AS 755 Alaska SAN 07:47 SFO 09:25 22% 6% 1.3% no record
UA 2117 United Flight history → SAN 16:09 SFO 17:49 23% 9% 0.6% 76%
WN 1677 Southwest Flight history → SAN 11:15 SFO 13:00 24% 9% 0.8% 35%
UA 1763 United Flight history → SAN 13:39 SFO 15:19 24% 8% 0.6% 74%
AS 3463 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 08:04 SFO 09:52 24% 8% 0.7% 63%
AS 3347 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 11:04 SFO 12:51 24% 9% 0.8% 64%
WN 2794 Southwest SAN 09:30 SFO 11:04 25% 7% 0.8% no record
UA 1302 United Flight history → SAN 18:27 SFO 20:07 25% 10% 0.6% 62%
UA 2278 United Flight history → SAN 19:41 SFO 21:28 25% 9% 0.7% 37%
AS 3232 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 19:01 SFO 20:42 25% 9% 0.8% 28%
AS 291 Alaska Flight history → SAN 21:27 SFO 23:08 26% 8% 1.6% 42%
AS 3205 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 10:04 SFO 11:49 26% 10% 0.8% 27%
WN 2272 Southwest Flight history → SAN 13:30 SFO 15:10 27% 10% 0.9% 12%
AS 3352 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SAN 13:30 SFO 15:14 27% 9% 0.8% 74%
WN 3534 Southwest Flight history → SAN 19:00 SFO 20:45 27% 10% 0.7% 12%
WN 3533 Southwest Flight history → SAN 17:20 SFO 19:00 30% 13% 0.8% 38%
WN 4772 Southwest Flight history → SAN 20:10 SFO 21:55 33% 12% 0.8% 12%
F9 3383 Frontier Flight history → SAN 19:46 SFO 21:38 33% 16% 3.0% 27%
WN 4181 Southwest Flight history → SAN 15:30 SFO 17:05 37% 13% 0.8% 36%
AS 2314 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 16:14 SFO 17:49 72% 10% 3.8% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON