Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Today: WN 3689 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today WN 3689 SAN 06:51 → SMF 08:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4464 SAN 15:45 → SMF 17:20 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3689 Southwest	SAN 06:51	SMF 08:34	5%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 3544 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:45	SMF 08:35	6%	1%	0.3%	93%
WN 2926 Southwest	SAN 08:10	SMF 09:52	11%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 4356 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:40	SMF 10:20	12%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 4187 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:20	SMF 11:00	14%	3%	0.7%	79%
WN 2857 Southwest	SAN 09:30	SMF 11:12	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3546 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:30	SMF 12:05	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
OO 3252 SkyWest	SAN 08:52	SMF 10:39	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 1435 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:30	SMF 13:20	20%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 2836 Southwest	SAN 11:00	SMF 12:42	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4269 Southwest	SAN 11:40	SMF 13:22	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4957 Southwest	SAN 12:35	SMF 14:17	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1700 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:40	SMF 14:20	23%	7%	0.7%	69%
OO 3360 SkyWest	SAN 12:22	SMF 14:09	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 1621 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 21:47	SMF 23:32	25%	5%	0.9%	67%
WN 3551 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:00	SMF 22:45	26%	9%	0.7%	34%
AS 3006 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:56	SMF 21:45	26%	9%	0.9%	84%
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:00	SMF 12:53	27%	8%	0.8%	74%
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:32	SMF 19:20	27%	9%	0.9%	80%
WN 3549 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:00	SMF 19:40	28%	10%	0.7%	45%
AS 349 Alaska	SAN 15:35	SMF 17:19	30%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 652 Southwest	SAN 13:46	SMF 15:29	30%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4272 Southwest	SAN 17:31	SMF 19:15	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3547 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:55	SMF 15:35	31%	9%	0.7%	27%
AS 3035 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:13	SMF 17:00	31%	9%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
WN 2380 Southwest	SAN 19:07	SMF 20:51	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3550 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:30	SMF 21:10	31%	9%	0.7%	50%
WN 4552 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:00	SMF 16:40	33%	9%	0.7%	60%
WN 3691 Southwest	SAN 14:56	SMF 16:38	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4271 Southwest	SAN 16:01	SMF 17:44	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4464 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:45	SMF 17:20	34%	9%	0.7%	60%
AS 2100 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 07:44	SMF 09:36	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON