Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:57 pm at San Diego); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 58% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 17:10, 36% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SAN 17:10 → PHX 18:35WN 2521	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 20:25 → STL 01:27 +1WN 3493	6h 17m	75%	36%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	51m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666	5h 40m	47%	36%
Southwest Details →	SAN 16:25 → LAS 17:50WN 4111	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 19:00 → STL 00:15 +1WN 4539	5h 50m	48%	31%
Southwest Details →	SAN 16:29 → LAS 17:51WN 1943	59m Las Vegas	LAS 18:50 → STL 00:05 +1WN 2453	5h 36m	39%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON