Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3045 at 12:52, 26%.

Safest bet today OO 3045 SAN 12:52 → STS 14:41 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3695 SAN 21:20 → STS 23:08 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 3045 SkyWest	SAN 12:52	STS 14:41	26%	11%	0.9%	no record
AS 3302 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 21:03	STS 22:58	40%	14%	1.1%	80%worse than usual
OO 3350 SkyWest	SAN 21:02	STS 22:54	43%	14%	1.1%	no record
WN 4191 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:45	STS 23:35	46%	12%	0.5%	57%
WN 3695 Southwest	SAN 21:20	STS 23:08	46%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON