Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: DL 8888 at 08:03, 30%.

Safest bet today DL 8888 SAN 08:03 → TPA 15:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1639 SAN 08:32 → TPA 16:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 8888 Delta	SAN 08:03	TPA 15:06	30%	6%	1.4%	no record
WN 4511 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:35	TPA 16:25	31%	5%	0.5%	82%worse than usual
AS 518 Alaska	SAN 10:39	TPA 18:18	32%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4662 Southwest	SAN 08:46	TPA 16:24	33%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 1639 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 08:32	TPA 16:29	33%	6%	0.9%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON