Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:55 am at San Diego)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


AS 2321 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:16	TUL 14:30	37%	10%	0.0%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAN 13:07 → ORD 19:54AA 811	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 22:05 → TUL 00:06 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	8h 59m	95%	86%
Southwest Details →	SAN 12:10 → MDW 18:10WN 4163	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → TUL 23:26WN 301	9h 16m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10WN 3447	3h 34m Phoenix	PHX 11:44 → TUL 16:10WN 590	7h 30m	100%	82%
American Details →	SAN 07:30 → ORD 13:59AA 1261	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 17:00 → TUL 19:06AA 3827 · flown by Envoy	9h 36m	98%	82%
United Details →	SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368	3h 32m Denver	DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest	7h 54m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	SAN 12:30 → BNA 18:30WN 4147	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → TUL 00:02 +1WN 746	9h 32m	100%	81%
United Details →	SAN 07:54 → IAH 13:04UA 2760	1h 31m Houston	IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 6270 · flown by Mesa	6h 21m	96%	80%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	2h 49m Houston	IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa	7h 54m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:57 → TUL 15:16AA 5420 · flown by PSA	5h 16m	58%	45%
American Details →	SAN 16:32 → DFW 21:49AA 2485	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	5h 15m	57%	37%
American Details →	SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:46AA 2889	5h 26m	56%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON