Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:00 pm at San Diego); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 66%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4876 at 19:40, 65%.

Nonstops today


WN 4876 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:40	TUS 21:10	65%	40%	0.2%	61%worse than usual
WN 1307 Southwest	SAN 19:53	TUS 21:22	68%	38%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAN 16:23 → PHX 17:49AA 2470	3h 00m Phoenix	PHX 20:49 → TUS 21:47AA 6309 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	90%	60%
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	3h 08m San Francisco	SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	96%	59%
Southwest Details →	SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 22:00 → TUS 23:30WN 354	5h 25m	100%	58%
Southwest Details →	SAN 16:29 → LAS 17:51WN 1943	3h 59m Las Vegas	LAS 21:50 → TUS 23:17WN 352	6h 48m	100%	57%
Southwest Details →	SAN 17:10 → PHX 18:35WN 2521	4h 00m Phoenix	PHX 22:35 → TUS 23:32WN 1439	6h 22m	100%	50%
Southwest Details →	SAN 18:55 → PHX 20:15WN 4173	2h 35m Phoenix	PHX 22:50 → TUS 23:45WN 3564	4h 50m	96%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SAN 17:20 → DEN 20:40WN 4151	1h 05m Denver	DEN 21:45 → TUS 22:50WN 4313	5h 30m	31%	16%
United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	50m San Francisco	SFO 20:57 → TUS 23:26UA 5688 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	18%	11%
Alaska Details →	SAN 15:29 → SEA 17:51AS 685	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 18:59 → TUS 22:00AS 638	6h 31m	26%	9%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON