Today: WN 3701 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet today WN 3701 SAT 05:10 → BWI 09:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4295 SAT 16:55 → BWI 21:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3701 Southwest	SAT 05:10	BWI 09:28	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3561 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 15:45	BWI 20:10	16%	5%	0.6%	52%
WN 2664 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 11:25	BWI 15:50	16%	3%	0.4%	62%
WN 4295 Southwest	SAT 16:55	BWI 21:11	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON