tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:12 pm at San Antonio); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 13:25, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:25 → ORD 16:27UA 2824 3h 18m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 8h 29m 97% 77%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:20 → MDW 17:55WN 3584 2h 50m Chicago MDW 20:45 → DCA 23:44WN 2406 7h 24m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 18m Minneapolis MSP 19:34 → DCA 23:07DL 1897 7h 41m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAT 13:20 → BOS 18:47DL 816 3h 01m Boston BOS 21:48 → DCA 23:44DL 5704 · flown by Republic 9h 24m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 17m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → SAT 13:32 → ORD 16:38AA 2486 2h 25m Chicago ORD 19:03 → DCA 22:14AA 1187 7h 42m 91% 69%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:40 → ATL 19:05WN 3556 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:10 → DCA 22:59WN 1201 6h 19m 92% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 6h 41m 83% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:25 → ORD 16:27UA 2824 50m Chicago ORD 17:17 → DCA 20:24UA 2761 5h 59m 64% 51%
AmericanDetails → SAT 17:35 → DFW 18:59AA 3311 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 5h 24m 62% 43%
UnitedDetails → SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323 46m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 5h 02m 50% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON