Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2342 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2342 SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1075 SAT 19:52 → DFW 21:08 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	8%	3%	0.9%	91%
AA 2266 American Flight history →	SAT 06:01	DFW 07:21	11%	4%	1.0%	87%
AA 2616 American Flight history →	SAT 04:52	DFW 06:11	11%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	14%	6%	0.9%	83%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:31	DFW 10:50	15%	5%	1.9%	78%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	16%	7%	0.9%	86%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SAT 10:40	DFW 12:05	16%	5%	2.7%	78%
AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 12:26	DFW 13:45	19%	4%	0.7%	77%
MQ 4039 Envoy	SAT 11:19	DFW 12:33	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4084 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 13:44	DFW 15:04	22%	3%	0.7%	79%
AA 3878 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 19:08	DFW 20:28	23%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 12:50	DFW 14:14	24%	9%	1.8%	70%
AA 499 American Flight history →	SAT 20:23	DFW 21:44	27%	8%	1.6%	54%
OO 4967 SkyWest	SAT 16:30	DFW 17:56	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1582 American	SAT 14:03	DFW 15:22	28%	6%	2.3%	no record
AA 3311 American Flight history →	SAT 17:35	DFW 18:59	30%	6%	1.6%	59%
AA 2609 American Flight history →	SAT 14:48	DFW 16:11	30%	6%	1.8%	69%
AA 752 American	SAT 17:46	DFW 19:11	30%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	SAT 16:21	DFW 17:40	32%	8%	1.9%	71%
AA 1075 American	SAT 19:52	DFW 21:08	33%	8%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON