Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:42 am at San Antonio); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 07:43, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1261 United Flight history →	SAT 13:35	EWR 18:30	32%	9%	0.5%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	8h 30m	99%	79%
United Details →	SAT 13:25 → ORD 16:27UA 2824	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	9h 14m	98%	77%
United Details →	SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410	3h 10m Houston	IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371	8h 03m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SAT 18:03 → SLC 19:59DL 2685	3h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	10h 57m	98%	75%
United Details →	SAT 09:42 → IAH 10:49UA 753	2h 57m Houston	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	7h 48m	100%	75%
American Details →	SAT 19:02 → PHX 19:33AA 2973	2h 41m Phoenix	PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156	9h 58m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	7h 43m	98%	73%
United Details →	SAT 11:44 → IAH 13:08UA 1282	3h 39m Houston	IAH 16:47 → EWR 21:29UA 700	8h 45m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAT 18:16 → ATL 21:54DL 1465	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	5h 42m	62%	46%
United Details →	SAT 17:57 → IAH 19:04UA 2323	51m Houston	IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444	5h 40m	62%	46%
United Details →	SAT 13:53 → ORD 16:38UA 2243	47m Chicago	ORD 17:25 → EWR 20:46UA 1630	5h 53m	62%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON