Today: UA 275 at 17:56 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–46%.

Safest bet today UA 275 SAT 17:56 → IAH 19:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 4053 SAT 19:22 → IAH 20:31 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 275 United	SAT 17:56	IAH 19:22	21%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 5658 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAT 19:20	IAH 20:33	25%	5%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
UA 2323 United Flight history →	SAT 17:57	IAH 19:04	26%	4%	0.4%	67%
YV 4053 Mesa	SAT 19:22	IAH 20:31	46%	14%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON