tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:51 pm at San Antonio); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 27% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:20 → MDW 17:55WN 3584 2h 35m Chicago MDW 20:30 → MCI 22:05WN 1482 6h 45m 100% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 16:50 → STL 19:00WN 3590 2h 45m St Louis STL 21:45 → MCI 22:55WN 2453 6h 05m 97% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:45 → BWI 20:10WN 3561 1h 45m Baltimore BWI 21:55 → MCI 23:45WN 983 8h 00m 90% 74%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 14:10 → DEN 15:25WN 4678 2h 30m Denver DEN 17:55 → MCI 20:45WN 4305 6h 35m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 7h 43m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 6h 50m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 3h 00m Houston IAH 20:25 → MCI 22:31UA 1027 6h 13m 90% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 15:10 → DAL 16:25WN 4299 3h 10m Dallas DAL 19:35 → MCI 21:14WN 1402 6h 04m 96% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:16 → ATL 21:54DL 1465 54m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 5h 42m 48% 35%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:20 → LAS 18:10WN 3576 55m Las Vegas LAS 19:05 → MCI 23:57WN 3762 6h 37m 54% 35%
DeltaDetails → SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009 47m Atlanta ATL 20:37 → MCI 21:55DL 3023 5h 40m 27% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON