Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:24 pm at San Antonio); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 16:50, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SAT 16:50 → STL 19:00WN 3590	3h 00m St Louis	STL 22:00 → MDW 23:15WN 4099	6h 25m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	SAT 20:35 → LAS 21:20WN 963	2h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 50m	94%	75%
Southwest Details →	SAT 15:40 → ATL 19:05WN 3556	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:15 → MDW 23:24WN 246	7h 44m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → MDW 00:11 +1WN 4548	6h 46m	97%	63%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 00m	86%	62%
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:00 → DAL 19:15WN 1316	3h 40m Dallas	DAL 22:55 → MDW 01:16 +1WN 1416	7h 16m	98%	61%
Southwest Details →	SAT 17:20 → LAS 18:10WN 3576	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 19:55 → MDW 01:30 +1WN 3200	8h 10m	80%	53%
Southwest Details →	SAT 20:05 → DAL 21:15WN 1338	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 22:50 → MDW 01:05 +1WN 1359	5h 00m	92%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SAT 18:30 → HOU 19:40WN 3573	55m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05WN 2044	4h 35m	60%	40%
Southwest Details →	SAT 15:45 → BWI 20:10WN 3561	46m Baltimore	BWI 20:56 → MDW 22:12WN 1073	6h 27m	54%	38%
Southwest Details →	SAT 17:45 → MCO 21:30WN 2690	1h 00m Orlando	MCO 22:30 → MDW 00:28 +1WN 693	6h 43m	61%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON