Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:51 am at San Antonio); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 12:26, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2489 American Flight history →	SAT 14:10	PHL 18:55	28%	10%	0.8%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAT 19:02 → PHX 19:33AA 2973	3h 31m Phoenix	PHX 23:04 → PHL 06:43 +1AA 2301	10h 41m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	8h 30m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:00 → DTW 20:09DL 2598	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	6h 16m	90%	71%
United Details →	SAT 13:39 → DEN 14:55UA 1007	2h 59m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	8h 51m	96%	70%
Frontier Details →	SAT 19:39 → DEN 21:14F9 3707	2h 45m Denver	DEN 23:59 → PHL 05:39 +1F9 3340	9h 00m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	SAT 12:04 → ATL 15:39DL 1121	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	8h 16m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	SAT 16:15 → ATL 19:50DL 2009	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	7h 44m	97%	69%
American Details →	SAT 13:32 → ORD 16:38AA 2486	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 19:44 → PHL 23:02AA 532	8h 30m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 45m	68%	49%
American Details →	SAT 16:20 → DFW 17:38AA 1961	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	5h 37m	62%	39%
Southwest Details →	SAT 16:50 → STL 19:00WN 3590	50m St Louis	STL 19:50 → PHL 23:19WN 4401	5h 29m	66%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON