Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3730 at 21:20, 36%.

Safest bet today WN 3730 SAT 21:20 → PHX 21:47 · 36% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2973 SAT 19:03 → PHX 19:33 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3730 Southwest	SAT 21:20	PHX 21:47	36%	8%	0.1%	no record
WN 3729 Southwest	SAT 17:22	PHX 17:17	38%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 3585 Southwest Flight history →	SAT 17:35	PHX 17:55	39%	8%	0.2%	46%
AA 2973 American Flight history →	SAT 19:03	PHX 19:33	42%	11%	0.3%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON