tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:16 pm at San Antonio); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 3447 at 17:45, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3447 Southwest SAT 17:45 TPA 21:28 26% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAT 19:03 → PHX 19:33AA 2973 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 22:03 → TPA 05:10 +1AA 3260 9h 07m 100% 67%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193 1h 45m Nashville BNA 21:25 → TPA 00:20 +1WN 2173 5h 55m 90% 56%
DeltaDetails → SAT 18:16 → ATL 21:54DL 1465 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560 5h 13m 80% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 18:00 → DAL 19:15WN 1316 1h 30m Dallas DAL 20:45 → TPA 00:24 +1WN 1474 5h 24m 82% 42%
AmericanDetails → SAT 17:35 → DFW 18:59AA 3311 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:30 → TPA 23:59AA 2256 5h 24m 79% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 17:58 → CLT 21:44AA 2934 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 22:48 → TPA 00:39 +1AA 1773 5h 41m 69% 35%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 18:30 → HOU 19:40WN 3573 1h 15m Houston HOU 20:55 → TPA 00:10 +1WN 2090 4h 40m 75% 31%
SouthwestDetails → SAT 17:25 → BNA 19:40WN 4193 50m Nashville BNA 20:30 → TPA 23:25WN 744 5h 00m 53% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON