Today: AA 1172 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet today AA 1172 SAV 05:00 → CLT 06:10 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2076 SAV 18:38 → CLT 19:51 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1172 American Flight history →	SAV 05:00	CLT 06:10	9%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 5049 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:00	CLT 08:25	10%	3%	1.3%	95%
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 09:33	CLT 10:51	14%	4%	1.4%	93%
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 14:59	CLT 16:23	16%	5%	1.6%	73%
OH 5675 PSA	SAV 14:55	CLT 16:13	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 5676 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 08:47	CLT 10:14	18%	4%	1.3%	88%
OH 5176 PSA	SAV 16:31	CLT 17:49	19%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 4178 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAV 12:49	CLT 14:11	21%	7%	1.5%	95%worse than usual
AA 2317 American	SAV 10:50	CLT 12:02	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 5196 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 17:56	CLT 19:22	22%	6%	1.9%	64%
MQ 3538 Envoy	SAV 13:02	CLT 14:24	22%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 2076 American Flight history →	SAV 18:38	CLT 19:51	28%	7%	1.8%	73%
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:00	CLT 12:26	14%	6%	0.0%	86%
AA 6119 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 17:56	CLT 19:28	18%	10%	2.4%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON