Today: AA 4618 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet today AA 4618 SAV 09:21 → DCA 11:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5387 SAV 19:31 → DCA 21:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 4618 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SAV 09:21	DCA 11:12	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
YX 4595 Republic	SAV 15:28	DCA 17:37	20%	6%	0.5%	no record
OH 5506 PSA	SAV 10:18	DCA 12:07	22%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 19:31	DCA 21:30	33%	13%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON