Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:43 pm at Savannah); 7 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2499 United	SAV 16:26	ORD 17:54	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 291 United Flight history →	SAV 16:53	ORD 18:30	25%	9%	0.6%	67%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Savannah). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SAV 18:22 → MIA 19:55AA 3782 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Miami	MIA 21:50 → ORD 00:26 +1AA 2323	7h 04m	96%	79%
United Details →	SAV 17:15 → IAH 18:28UA 6185 · flown by Mesa	3h 40m Houston	IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752	8h 30m	95%	74%
United Details →	SAV 16:15 → DEN 18:17UA 2660	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:53UA 377	8h 38m	91%	69%
Delta Details →	SAV 19:07 → ATL 20:34DL 3112	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	5h 46m	85%	67%
American Details →	SAV 18:31 → PHL 20:35AA 2504	2h 28m Philadelphia	PHL 23:03 → ORD 00:29 +1AA 2840	6h 58m	90%	65%
American Details →	SAV 16:49 → DFW 18:11AA 2048	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → ORD 23:02AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	78%	65%
American Details →	SAV 18:38 → CLT 19:52AA 2076	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → ORD 23:49AA 627	6h 11m	100%	64%
American Details →	SAV 17:56 → CLT 19:22AA 5196 · flown by PSA	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 21:49 → ORD 22:59AA 815	6h 03m	94%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAV 19:24 → DFW 21:11AA 2509	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	6h 26m	61%	43%
United Details →	SAV 16:15 → DEN 18:17UA 2660	53m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258	7h 34m	53%	39%
American Details →	SAV 16:49 → DFW 18:11AA 2048	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → ORD 21:26AA 2656	5h 37m	48%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON