Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:21 pm at Santa Barbara); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via SFO, leaving 20:24, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m San Francisco	SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368	7h 33m	76%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest	48m San Francisco	SFO 22:38 → ORD 05:01 +1UA 2278	6h 37m	59%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON