tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Santa Barbara); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: QX 2025 at 17:36, 25%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2025 Horizon SBA 17:36 PDX 20:01 25% 11% 1.8% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 16:50 → SLC 19:51DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 54m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SBA 16:03 → SFO 17:29UA 5256 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 6h 45m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SBA 18:00 → LAS 19:15WN 3602 3h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → PDX 00:35 +1WN 199 6h 35m 100% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SBA 19:50 → SMF 21:05WN 3603 54m Sacramento SMF 21:59 → PDX 23:41WN 3958 3h 51m 68% 55%
UnitedDetails → SBA 20:24 → SFO 21:50UA 5704 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384 4h 26m 68% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON