Today: UA 2340 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet today UA 2340 SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 4715 SBA 09:59 → SFO 11:25 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2340 United Flight history →	SBA 06:15	SFO 07:25	7%	3%	0.4%	89%
OO 5263 SkyWest	SBA 18:41	SFO 20:18	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SBA 13:58	SFO 15:08	23%	9%	0.3%	52%
UA 5256 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 16:03	SFO 17:29	27%	9%	0.7%	74%
UA 5704 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 20:24	SFO 21:50	28%	10%	0.7%	22%
OO 5831 SkyWest	SBA 09:40	SFO 11:12	30%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 4715 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 09:59	SFO 11:25	33%	11%	0.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON