Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
OO 4715 · SBA → SFO
departs 9:59 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SBA is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.