Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 4715 · SBA → SFO
departs 9:59 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.