Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4715
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4715 · SBA → SFO
departs 9:59 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.